2025 was one of the best years in recent history for the Romanian stock market. The Bucharest stock market stood out head and shoulders above the rest, even in a year when European stock markets generally performed well. But even though Romania was among the champions of the European capital market, this performance did little to change the international perception of the Romanian stock market. The BET, the main index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange, closed 2025 at 24,438.89 points, a new historic high. This level is 46.16% higher than the last trading value of 2024. It is the largest annual increase in the past 15 years and is all the more impressive because it took place in a fragile macroeconomic environment.
The last time the Bucharest stock market soared was in 2009, the year of recovery from the global financial crisis, or in the early 2000s, when the stock market was small, immature and extremely volatile. Created with Flourish – Create a chart The BET index, however, tells only part of the story. There is another indicator, less known to the general public, that reflects much more accurately what is happening in the market. That’s the BET-TR, the index that accumulates both price increases and dividend payments to investors. In 2025, this index rose 55.21%. Bucharest is among the top European stock markets. From a pure performance perspective, the Romanian stock market is one of the surprises of the year at the European level. The BET index rose more than the main indices of the region’s largest markets, such as Poland and Austria, but also more than those of the major European markets – the United Kingdom, Germany and France. The 46.16% increase places the BET index in fourth place in Europe. The best performer was the Prague stock market index, which rose by more than 52%. This was followed by the main index of the stock market in the Slovenian capital, with a value increase of almost 50%. Completing the podium is the IBEX 35, the main index of the Madrid Stock Exchange, which rose 49% last year, helped by the good performance of the Spanish economy. BET follows, and right behind it come the indices of the Vienna and Warsaw markets, which rose 45%. By comparison, major European equity markets performed much worse. For example, the FTSE 100 index of the London Stock Exchange rose 25%, the German DAX index rose 23% and the Paris CAC 40 index fell less than 11%. The reasons why BVB is unsuccessful internationally Although BET broadcasts programs that can easily compete with those of the largest markets, its visibility beyond its borders is weak. Created with Flourish – Create a chart One possible explanation is the size of the market. Even after a spectacular 2025, the total market capitalization of the BVB is 538 billion lei, or 105.5 billion euros. That’s a lot compared to before, but little in a regional context. In Warsaw, the market capitalization is 578 billion euros, with the Polish market being a regional point of attraction for international capital. Prague, although much smaller in terms of the number of listed companies, manages to achieve a market capitalization similar to that of Bucharest, thanks to a few very large issuers that are well integrated into international capital flows. Another explanation has to do with liquidity. At the Bucharest Stock Exchange, the average daily transaction value was 13.4 million euros. Granted, there are better days, but they are not enough for large investment funds. In Warsaw, daily liquidity is measured in hundreds of millions of euros. Even Prague, a concentrated market, offers a more predictable trading volume precisely because turnover is dominated by a few extremely liquid stocks. This explains why a nearly 50% increase in the BET index does not automatically generate international interest. For large mutual funds, returns are relevant only if they can be replicated on a large scale. In Romania, large investments are difficult to make and likewise difficult to liquidate.
This is because the market is concentrated on a few large companies, particularly in the energy and financial sectors, while the rest of the “investment universe” is fragmented and poorly traded. In addition to these structural problems, market classification also plays a role. Romania is still in a gray area if we look at the classification used by the world’s major equity index providers. In 2020, it was promoted to secondary emerging market by FTSE Russell. A step forward, but one that did not fundamentally change the market. And that’s because MSCI, which classifies us as an advanced frontier market, remains the dominant benchmark in the world of global investment. If granted emerging market status, the Bucharest Stock Exchange would be eligible for funds that track MSCI Emerging Markets indices and manage assets worth trillions of dollars. Unlike BVB, the Warsaw Stock Exchange is considered an emerging market by both MSCI and FTSE Russell, which automatically includes it in the global indices tracked by major funds. At the same time, the Prague stock exchange, although small and concentrated, is also considered an emerging market by MSCI and benefits from a visibility that Bucharest does not have. Therefore, the Romanian capital market no longer faces a yield problem. However, there is a structure problem. MSCI rates markets based on consistent liquidity, sufficient free float, market depth and the ability of the market to absorb large investments without disruption. Bucharest, however, remains vulnerable in many of these areas. Liquidity is concentrated in a few stocks, free float is limited to a few large issuers and large, market-changing IPOs are still rare. Promotion to the top division is expected by all players. But without a steady increase in liquidity, expanding free float and a few large-scale IPOs, rapid promotion remains unlikely. Until this changes, the Bucharest market will continue to do what it already does very well: grow quickly, discreetly and almost without an audience.