Page 2 - Economic Outlook Romania 2019

Main ING forecasts

Economic growth EUR/RON Inflation

0% 5.00
6.9 4.90 5.5
1%
4.80
5.5 5.7 2% 4.70 4.5
4.60
4.8 3% 3.5
4.50
4.1 4% 4.40 2.5
3.9 NBR target band
3.5 3.4 4.30
5% 1.5
4.20
6% 4.10 0.5
2.0 2.0
2.7 4.00
7% -0.5
2.1 3.90
8% 3.80
Food Non-food
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Services Inflation (%YoY)
Volatility (inverted,lhs) EUR/RON(rhs)
GDP (%YoY) NCSP ING ING forecast
ING f'cast(rhs)

We believe economic We see the EUR/RON at Inflation looks broadly

growth will slowdown 4.80 in Dec-2019 and contained. Our forecast:

towards 2.7% in 2019 4.90 in Dec-2020 3.6% in Dec-2019 and
and 2.1% in 2020 3.3% in Dec-2020

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