Page 7 - Economic Outlook Romania 2019

Eurozone 2018-2019: a start to forget, switching

into a lower gear

Sky fall? Not yet A soft patch, not a downturn ECB: haunted by past
mistakes

70.0 5.0 0 13 1.5
9.0 -5
50.0 4.0
7.0 -10 1.0
3.0
30.0 -15 11
5.0
2.0 -20
10.0 0.5
3.0
1.0 -25
-10.0
1.0 0.0 -30 9
-30.0 -1.0 -1.0 -35 0.0
-40
-50.0 -3.0 -2.0 -45 7 -0.5
-70.0 -5.0 -3.0 -50

Eurozone unemployment (%)
Germany ZEW index EZ retail sales (%, YoY)
Eurozone manufacturing (%, YoY, rhs) EC Consumer Confidence (rhs) ECB refi rate (%, rhs)

Lower cruising speed Trade, geopolitical tensions Core inflation near 1%

Worries: trade tensions, market Oil biting into real wages – ECB needs more evidence
volatility, ECB’s monetary fading confidence, despite on higher inflation
normalization. Looks like a positive employment outlook outlook. A first rate hike in

transition period towards due to increasing labour 4Q19. Mario Draghi’s

growth normalization. shortages in Eurozone countries mandate ends in Oct-19.

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