Page 3 - Economic Outlook Romania 2019
P. 3

GDP lower. Why?






         Consumer confidence                          Limited room for fiscal                     External backdrop is
         shifting gradually lower                     impulse                                     deteriorating


                                                      100%                                 -0.5    125                                10
           20                                  0             13%     14%     12%    13%                                               8
                                                       90%                                         120
                                                                                           -1.0                                       6
                                                                             14%
           15                                  -5      80%   18%     12%            15%            115
                                                       70%                                                                            4
                                               -10                   17%     15%    14%    -1.5                                       2
           10                                          60%   17%                                   110
                                               -15     50%                                 -2.0                                       0
           5                                                                                       105                                -2
                                               -20     40%                                         100                                -4
                                                                                           -2.5
           0                                           30%                   59%    58%                                               -6
                                               -25           53%     57%                            95
                                                       20%                                                                            -8
           -5                                  -30                                         -3.0
                                                       10%                                          90                                -10
          -10                                  -35     0%                                  -3.5
                                                             2015    2016   2017    2018
                                                            Others              Investments                  RO Manufacturing
                                                            Goods, services     Wages+social expenditures
               Retail sales (YoY%)  Consumer confidence (rhs)                                                EZ manufacturing confidence (rhs)
                                                            Budget deficit(% of GDP)

         Consumers are unlikely to                    The composition of                          The soft patch in the
         increase their spending                      budget expenditures is                      Eurozone doesn’t look

         further. Retail sales look                   pro-cyclical and leaves                     transitory. Germany
         on a downward trend                          limited fiscal space to                     narrowly avoided
                                                      prop-up the economy                         technical recession in the

                                                      when a downturn occurs                      fourth quarter of 2019



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