Page 4 - Economic Outlook Romania 2019

EUR/RON gradually higher. Why?

Current account deficit Interest rates have already Inflation differential
becoming problematic increased significantly between Romania and EU

4.00% 9.0
-0.7%
-1.1% -1.2% 8.0
3.50%
-2.1% 7.0
-3.2% 3.00% 6.0
2.50% 5.0
-4.7%
4.0
2.00%
3.0
ING forecast
1.50% 2.0
267% 1.00% 1.0
0.0
190%
150% 0.50% -1.0
127%
82% 0.00% -2.0
52%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Key policy rate 3M ROBOR
FDI as % of C/A C/A as % of GDP (rhs) Credit facility Deposit facility European Union - 28 countries Romania

Foreign direct investments Protecting the FX via higher We forecast a 2.3%
covered only 52% of the interest rates has been a inflation differential in

C/A gap in 2018 and EU tool of choice for NBR but 2019 and 1.6% in 2020
funds absorption remained the room for maneuver is

sluggish diminishing due to lending
transmission and bank tax

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